Why have my email open rates declined since February?

Key findings

• Impact of policy changes: The February timeframe often coincides with updated email authentication and sender requirements from major mailbox providers, such as those from Google and Yahoo, which can significantly affect inbox placement and, consequently, measured open rates.
• Open rate reliability: While open rates are not a perfect indicator due to pixel loading behaviors and privacy features, a sharp decline almost always suggests an underlying problem, such as emails landing in spam folders.
• Technical issues: Unexpected drops can stem from technical misconfigurations, including expired SSL certificates for tracking links, or issues with email authentication protocols like DMARC, SPF, and DKIM.
• Data analysis importance: It is crucial to analyze other metrics, like click-through rates and spam folder placement (using inbox testing), as they provide a more reliable picture of engagement and deliverability than open rates alone. For more on this, read our guide on what causes a sudden drop in open rates.

Key considerations

• Comprehensive data review: Gather at least six months of send, open, and click data to identify trends and pinpoint when the drop occurred. Segment this data by domain or Mail Exchange (MX) to identify specific problem areas.
• Technical configuration check: Verify that all email sending infrastructure is correctly configured, including SPF, DKIM, and DMARC records. An expired SSL certificate for tracking links can also cause deliverability issues.
• Content and pixel placement: Assess if recent content changes (e.g., longer emails leading to clipping) or pixel placement might be impacting reported open rates.
• ESP reporting changes: Investigate if your Email Service Provider (ESP) has altered its methodology for reporting opens, or if a change in ESP occurred around the observed decline.
• Shift focus to clicks: Given the limitations of open rate tracking, prioritize click data as a more accurate measure of engagement and inbox placement. Google also advises against relying on open rates, as detailed in their sender guidelines.

Key opinions

• Canary in the coal mine: Many marketers view changes in open rates as an early warning sign (a canary in the coal mine) that email streams might be hitting spam folders, necessitating a reduction in sending volume or a reevaluation of strategy.
• Something changed: A sharp decline indicates that something indeed changed, whether it relates to deliverability, marketing strategy, or the reporting mechanisms themselves.
• Still an indicator: Despite limitations, open rates can still indicate whether something good or bad is happening, and marketers are reluctant to abandon them completely as a diagnostic tool.
• Technical culprits: Technical issues, like expired SSL certificates for tracking links, have been observed to cause significant drops in open rates (e.g., to 1% at Yahoo) that resolved upon fixing the technical problem.

Key considerations

• Comprehensive data comparison: Marketers should focus on comparing current data with historical trends for open rates and other metrics rather than absolute open rate levels, especially considering varying demographics and list quality.
• Beyond open rates: While investigating open rate drops, ensure the primary focus shifts to more actionable metrics like click-through rates. For related advice, see what to do when email click rates decline.
• Investigate technical changes: A common cause for a February drop is the recent implementation of email authentication changes, such as DKIM, which, if misconfigured, can lead to emails being sent to spam. This is particularly relevant for Yahoo and AOL.
• Consider privacy impact: Recognize that changes in privacy settings, like Apple's Mail Privacy Protection, anonymize tracking pixels, leading to a general decline in accurate open rate reporting. As VerticalResponse notes, email open rates are declining primarily due to such changes.

Key opinions

• Open rates are image loads: Experts consistently remind that an "open" is merely an image load, not necessarily a human interaction, making it a flawed metric for engagement.
• Distinguish problem types: When open rates tank, the core question is whether it's a deliverability problem, a marketing problem, or a reporting problem, each requiring a different diagnostic approach.
• Gmail's explicit stance: Google has explicitly stated they do not track open rates and cannot verify third-party accuracy, implying that low open rates may not be reliable indicators of deliverability or spam classification issues.
• Contextual open rates: Mail streams with what might be considered "low" open rates can still be healthy and land in the inbox, especially for niche audiences (e.g., security professionals), underscoring that context matters more than the absolute number.

Key considerations

• Analyze deferral errors: Check for deferral or transient errors at Gmail, particularly those related to "unexpected volume of unsolicited mail from your DKIM/SPF domain," as these have become a primary cause of decreased performance since February. This relates to DMARC reports from Google and Yahoo.
• Look at data by domain/mx: To confirm open rate drops and diagnose the specific issue, collect data on a per-domain and per-MX basis to identify where the problem is most prevalent.
• Shift kpis: Given the declining trustworthiness of open rates, it's increasingly difficult to justify them as Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Shift organizational focus to metrics like clicks, conversions, or reply rates for a clearer picture of campaign success. Learn more about Google Postmaster Tools spam rate dashboard.
• Simple checks first: Before diving into complex diagnostics, always verify that email is being sent technically correctly, as sometimes simple oversights can cause significant deliverability issues.

Key findings

• Open rate accuracy: Google explicitly states that it does not track open rates and cannot verify the accuracy of third-party reported open rates. This implies that a low open rate might not accurately reflect deliverability or spam classification issues.
• Authentication emphasis: New sender requirements, especially those taking effect around February 2025, heavily emphasize strong email authentication (SPF, DKIM, and DMARC) for bulk senders to ensure emails reach the inbox. Read about Outlook's new sender requirements.
• Deferral errors: Documentation often mentions deferral or transient errors, such as "unexpected volume of unsolicited mail from your DKIM/SPF domain," as direct indicators of deliverability problems that affect how many emails even have a chance to be opened.
• Inbox placement priority: The overarching goal of MBP guidelines is to reduce spam and ensure legitimate mail reaches the inbox, prioritizing technical compliance and sender reputation over metrics like opens. For more, consult our guide on email deliverability issues in 2025.

Key considerations

• Implement strong authentication: Ensure your domain has correctly configured SPF, DKIM, and DMARC records to meet the latest MBP sender requirements, as this is fundamental for inbox placement.
• Monitor spam rates: Utilize Postmaster Tools from MBPs (e.g., Google Postmaster Tools) to monitor spam rates and domain reputation directly from the source, as these are more reliable indicators of deliverability than open rates.
• Adhere to content guidelines: Follow best practices for content, list hygiene, and sending frequency as outlined in MBP documentation to maintain a positive sender reputation and avoid spam folders.
• Focus on actionable metrics: Shift reporting and optimization efforts towards metrics that truly reflect user engagement and campaign success, such as click-through rates and conversions, recognizing that open rates are increasingly becoming a vanity metric.