How can you deduce inbox placement metrics using per-ISP open rates and manage bot opens?
Michael Ko
Co-founder & CEO, Suped
Published 18 May 2025
Updated 19 Aug 2025
6 min read
Understanding exactly where your emails land is a perennial challenge for anyone involved in email marketing or deliverability. While direct, absolute inbox placement metrics are often elusive, especially when dealing with various Internet Service Providers (ISPs), we can still deduce valuable insights. The key lies in carefully analyzing per-ISP open rates and developing robust strategies to manage the interference caused by bot opens.
Open rates, despite their known limitations, can serve as a powerful relative indicator of your inbox placement. When examined on an ISP-by-ISP basis, they reveal trends and anomalies that a global open rate might obscure. This granular view helps pinpoint specific deliverability issues at individual mailbox providers, allowing for more targeted troubleshooting and optimization.
However, the landscape of email metrics has become increasingly complex due to automated interactions, commonly referred to as bot opens or phantom opens. These artificial engagements can significantly inflate your reported open rates, masking actual deliverability problems and leading to misguided decisions. Effectively managing these bot opens is crucial for maintaining the integrity of your data and deriving accurate inbox placement deductions.
The value of per-ISP open rates
Open rates are often misunderstood email marketing metrics, as pointed out by Oracle's Marketing Cloud. While the overall email open rate might appear healthy, a deeper dive into per-ISP data can unveil hidden deliverability issues. Each ISP has its own unique filtering algorithms and reputation systems. A sudden drop in open rates for a specific ISP like Gmail or Outlook could indicate a specific blocking issue or spam folder placement with that provider, even if overall rates remain stable. This detailed analysis helps distinguish between general campaign performance and targeted deliverability problems.
The variance in transactional email open rates among ISPs is a prime example of why this granular approach is necessary. Factors like sender reputation, content relevance, and even IP address reputation are evaluated differently across providers. If your open rates are consistently low for one particular ISP, it suggests a deliverability challenge specific to that provider, rather than a universal engagement issue. This distinction is vital for accurate diagnosis.
While open rates are not a 100% reliable absolute metric due to privacy features like Apple Mail Privacy Protection, they remain a strong indicator of inbox placement rate when viewed as a relative metric. This means focusing on changes over time and comparing performance across different ISPs, rather than fixating on a single, overall percentage. It helps us understand if our deliverability is improving or declining at specific providers. Using opens as a metric for email marketing requires this nuanced approach.
Scenario: consistently low opens
Issue identified: Indicates poor inbox placement (spam folder delivery) or a sender reputation problem with that specific ISP.
Action required: Focus on improving sender reputation, reviewing content for spam triggers, and ensuring proper email authentication for that provider. You might need to understand why emails are going to spam.
Scenario: sudden drop in open rates
Issue identified: Could indicate a new blocklist listing (blacklist), a policy change at the ISP, or a significant change in your sending behavior.
Action required: Check for any new email blocklist appearances, review recent campaign changes, and consult ISP postmaster pages for announcements.
Identifying and managing bot opens
Bot opens are a significant challenge to accurate email metric analysis. These are automated interactions, typically from security scanners, spam filters, or malicious bots, that trigger the open pixel without a human recipient actually viewing the email. Since email deliverability measures whether your email lands in the primary inbox, inflated open rates can create a false sense of security, making it seem like your emails are performing well when in reality, they might be hitting spam folders.
The impact of anti-spam click bots on email metrics and deliverability cannot be overstated. They distort key engagement metrics, making it difficult to assess campaign effectiveness or identify genuine deliverability issues. For instance, a high open rate due to bots could mask poor inbox placement. Accurately measuring email engagement becomes challenging.
Identifying bot opens requires careful analysis beyond surface-level metrics. Look for opens that occur immediately after sending, often within seconds or minutes, from unusual geographic locations or IP ranges (e.g., data centers). If you see a cluster of opens from a single IP address or network that doesn't correspond to your recipient base, it's a strong indicator of bot activity. You can also analyze user agent strings for signs of automated clients. Understanding how ESPs distinguish human vs. bot opens can provide further insight.
Tips for managing bot opens
Segment your data: Analyze opens by geographic region, device type, and time of day to spot unusual patterns.
Focus on clicks: While opens can be automated, legitimate clicks usually require human interaction. Prioritize click-through rates as a more reliable engagement metric. Learn how to increase email click through rate.
IP filtering: If you identify known bot IP ranges or data centers, consider filtering these from your open rate calculations. This is part of learning how to handle bot clicks and opens.
Monitor engagement metrics: Beyond opens, track clicks, conversions, and replies. These provide a more holistic view of engagement. It helps to mitigate the impact of bot clicks.
Actionable strategies for improved inbox placement
Once you have a clearer picture from your per-ISP open rates and have accounted for bot interference, you can develop targeted strategies to improve your inbox placement. If a particular ISP consistently shows lower open rates, it indicates a need to investigate your sender reputation with that provider. This might involve reviewing your complaint rates, bounce rates, and overall engagement from recipients on that specific domain.
Maintaining a strong sender reputation is paramount. Regularly clean your email lists to remove inactive or invalid addresses, reducing bounces and spam trap hits. Ensure your content is relevant and engaging to your audience, as low engagement signals to ISPs that your emails are not valued, potentially leading to spam folder placement or even blacklisting. This helps boost email deliverability rates.
Beyond content and list hygiene, robust email authentication, including SPF, DKIM, and DMARC, is non-negotiable for improving inbox placement. These protocols verify your sender identity and help ISPs trust your emails. Consistent sending volume and frequency also contribute to a stable sender reputation. When you combine these practices with the insights from per-ISP open rates, you create a powerful strategy for maximizing your email deliverability.
Issue
Per-ISP indicator
Action to take
Spam folder placement
Significantly lower open rates at one ISP (e.g., Microsoft) compared to others.
Review content for spam triggers, reduce images, check for soft bounce rates, improve sender reputation with that specific provider.
Blocklist (blacklist) listing
Near-zero open rates for all or a large segment of mail sent to certain ISPs.
Gradual decline in open rates across multiple ISPs over time.
Re-engage inactive subscribers, remove unengaged users, improve email content and personalization to boost relevancy.
Views from the trenches
Best practices
Monitor per-ISP open rates as relative indicators to spot specific deliverability issues, rather than relying solely on overall figures.
Implement robust email authentication (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) to build trust with ISPs and improve sender reputation.
Regularly clean your email lists to remove unengaged subscribers, reducing bounces and spam trap hits.
Common pitfalls
Over-reliance on overall open rates, which can mask deliverability problems specific to certain ISPs.
Ignoring the impact of bot opens, leading to inflated metrics and inaccurate performance assessments.
Neglecting list hygiene, which can lead to higher bounce rates, spam complaints, and eventually blocklistings.
Expert tips
Analyze engagement beyond opens. Focus on clicks, conversions, and replies as more reliable indicators of true human interaction and inbox placement.
Segment your audience and tailor content to improve relevance, which can positively influence engagement and sender reputation at the ISP level.
Set up DMARC reports to get granular feedback on authentication failures and potential deliverability issues.
Marketer view
Marketer from Email Geeks says they don't use a direct inbox placement metric but deduce it from other indicators.
2020-04-22 - Email Geeks
Marketer view
Marketer from Email Geeks indicates that per-ISP open rates are a primary method for deducing inbox placement.
2020-04-22 - Email Geeks
Putting insights into action
Deducing inbox placement metrics from per-ISP open rates, while not an exact science, offers critical insights into your email program's health. By carefully analyzing these rates, you can identify specific deliverability bottlenecks and implement targeted improvements. The caveat, however, is the increasing prevalence of bot opens, which can skew data and lead to incorrect assumptions about your campaign performance.
A proactive approach involves continuous monitoring of per-ISP performance, employing methods to filter out bot-generated interactions, and focusing on other reliable engagement metrics like clicks and conversions. Ultimately, the goal is to paint the most accurate picture possible of where your emails are landing, enabling you to optimize your strategy for maximum reach and impact in an ever-evolving email ecosystem.