Why are email open rates declining for political campaigns acquired through Facebook ads despite strong engagement?
Matthew Whittaker
Co-founder & CTO, Suped
Published 5 Jun 2025
Updated 16 Aug 2025
7 min read
It can be incredibly perplexing when your political campaign's email open rates are declining, especially when you're seeing strong engagement from new subscribers acquired through Facebook ads. The traditional wisdom suggests that high click-through rates (CTR) and conversions should translate to healthy open rates, but the reality for many campaigns, particularly those in the political sphere, can be quite different.
The challenge often lies in a complex interplay of evolving email client privacy features, the unique characteristics of politically-motivated sign-ups, and the ever-present scrutiny of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) like Microsoft and Gmail. What might appear as strong engagement on the surface could be masking underlying deliverability issues that impact how many of your emails actually reach the inbox, let alone get opened.
Understanding why this disparity exists requires a deeper dive into how ISPs evaluate sender reputation, the nature of political email acquisition, and the true meaning of email engagement in today's privacy-focused landscape. We'll explore these factors to help unravel this deliverability puzzle.
Understanding the metrics
One of the most significant shifts in email marketing over recent years is the decreasing reliability of open rates as a standalone metric. Privacy features, such as Apple Mail Privacy Protection, automatically pre-fetch email content, artificially inflating open rates. Conversely, some opens might not be tracked due to image blocking or other client settings. This means a high open rate doesn't always reflect genuine recipient engagement, nor does a low one definitively mean your emails aren't being seen.
While open rates are becoming less accurate, ISPs still use them, among other signals, to assess sender reputation and make filtering decisions. If their systems detect a pattern of low actual engagement, even with inflated open rates, it can negatively impact your deliverability. This is why focusing on metrics like click-through rate (CTR) and conversions becomes paramount. These actions clearly indicate recipient interest and intent, providing a more truthful measure of engagement.
The fact that your click and conversion rates are strong suggests that the content, once seen, resonates deeply with your audience. However, the declining open rates indicate that your emails might not be consistently reaching the inbox, or are being routed to spam or promotions folders where they are less likely to be seen. You can read more about why email open rates drop in our other guides.
Focus on meaningful metrics
While open rates are easy to track, they're not always the best indicator of true engagement. Due to factors like Apple Mail Privacy Protection, open rates can be artificially inflated.
Prioritize and track metrics that demonstrate active interest, such as click-through rates and conversions. These actions indicate that your content is not only being received but also acted upon.
The unique challenges of political campaigns
Political campaigns often face unique deliverability challenges. The high volume of emails, combined with the often-polarizing nature of the content, can lead to higher spam complaint rates. ISPs monitor these complaints closely, and even a small percentage can significantly damage your sender reputation, causing future emails to land in spam folders or be blocked entirely.
List acquisition via Facebook ads and petition sign-ups, while effective for lead generation, can sometimes yield addresses that are decades old or from individuals who provided an email primarily to sign a petition, but don't wish for ongoing communication. While you're obtaining explicit consent, the recipient's expectation of future email volume or content might differ from your sending strategy. This mismatch can lead to recipients marking your emails as spam, even if they initially engaged.
Furthermore, political campaigns can sometimes be targets of email harassment, where opponents or disengaged individuals intentionally sign up with invalid or unwanted email addresses to disrupt your sending. This influx of low-quality data can negatively impact your deliverability, regardless of your robust list hygiene practices. Even with captcha challenges, some bad addresses can slip through, leading to bounces and further damage to your reputation.
The focus of your content also plays a role. If new subscribers signed up for a specific issue, like Supreme Court expansion, but your future emails broaden their scope too quickly, this shift in content can reduce engagement and increase complaints. It's essential to manage content transitions carefully and consider segmenting your audience based on their initial engagement point.
Typical political campaign approach
Acquisition focus: Emphasis on maximizing list size through broad Facebook ads and petitions.
List hygiene: Often relies on activity-based suppression (e.g., opened in 100 days) without deeper validation.
Content strategy: May shift topics or include generic content not directly aligned with initial opt-in.
Engagement focus: Prioritizes maximizing email volume, potentially leading to recipient fatigue.
Deliverability-focused approach
Acquisition focus: Focus on quality over quantity, using double opt-in or enhanced verification.
List hygiene: Implement a more aggressive suppression strategy. Remove inactive subscribers more frequently, especially on domains like Yahoo and Hotmail.
Engagement focus: Prioritize true engagement (clicks, conversions) over raw send volume.
Diagnosing and improving deliverability
To accurately diagnose and address declining open rates, especially with Gmail, utilizing tools like Google Postmaster Tools is crucial. These tools provide insights into your sender reputation, spam complaint rates, and deliverability errors specific to Google's ecosystem. Similarly, Microsoft's Smart Network Data Services (SNDS) offers similar data for their properties.
Implementing a DMARC record is a critical step in enhancing your email security and deliverability. DMARC helps protect your domain from unauthorized use and provides valuable feedback on how your emails are being authenticated and handled by receiving servers. Setting up DMARC monitoring will give you insights into potential authentication failures or spoofing attempts.
While your current list hygiene practices are strong for active users, consider implementing additional verification steps at the point of acquisition for Facebook leads and petition sign-ups. This could involve a double opt-in process or using an external email verification service to catch invalid or problematic addresses before they even enter your welcome series. Cleaning your list more aggressively, especially for inactive subscribers on problematic domains like Yahoo and Hotmail, can also boost email deliverability rates.
Implement double opt-in for all new subscribers, especially from Facebook lead ads, to confirm genuine interest and reduce invalid addresses.
Use email validation services at the point of acquisition to filter out typos, disposable addresses, and known bad entries before they impact your list.
Segment your audience based on initial engagement (e.g., petition signers for a specific issue) and tailor follow-up content to maintain relevance.
Actively monitor ISP feedback loops and postmaster tools for Gmail and Microsoft to identify complaint rates and deliverability issues.
Focus on click-through rates and conversions as primary indicators of engagement, rather than solely relying on unreliable email open rates.
Common pitfalls
Over-reliance on open rates as a primary metric for list hygiene or engagement, leading to skewed perceptions of deliverability.
Not thoroughly verifying email addresses acquired through lead generation forms, resulting in a higher incidence of invalid or unwanted contacts.
Sending a high volume of emails without sufficient segmentation or content relevance, leading to recipient fatigue and increased spam complaints.
Ignoring signs of declining sender reputation from ISPs like Gmail and Microsoft, which can lead to emails consistently landing in spam folders.
Believing that strong engagement on your landing page automatically translates to strong email engagement, overlooking the distinct nature of email deliverability.
Expert tips
Consider a more aggressive re-engagement strategy or sunsetting policy for subscribers who show no clicks after a certain period, even if they've had 'machine opens'.
Monitor your domain and IP for presence on email blocklists (or blacklists) regularly, as being listed can severely impact deliverability.
Analyze content performance: A/B test subject lines, from names, and email content to see what resonates best and drives clicks and conversions.
For political campaigns, consider the 'shelf life' of interest in a specific issue. Adapt your content strategy as public interest shifts to maintain relevance.
It is possible that even if you have explicit consent, the recipient's expectation of receiving ongoing emails might not match your sending frequency.
Marketer view
Marketer from Email Geeks says email addresses acquired from Facebook ads can often be very old, and if not verified, can lead to a significant number of dead or abandoned accounts that hurt deliverability.
July 5, 2022 - Email Geeks
Expert view
Expert from Email Geeks says signing petitions often leads to obtaining invalid email addresses, and unless thorough verification is performed, these bad addresses will result in bounces or spam complaints.
July 5, 2022 - Email Geeks
Moving forward with confidence
The decline in email open rates for political campaigns, even with strong engagement from Facebook ad acquisitions, is a multifaceted problem. It's a clear signal that ISPs are detecting a mismatch between your sending practices and actual recipient intent or historical engagement. While open rates themselves are imperfect metrics, their decline indicates potential underlying deliverability challenges that need to be addressed comprehensively.
The solution lies not just in technical configurations but also in a strategic re-evaluation of list acquisition quality, ongoing audience segmentation, and content relevance. By focusing on true, verifiable engagement metrics like clicks and conversions, and by maintaining a pristine sender reputation through rigorous list hygiene and compliance with ISP guidelines, you can improve your inbox placement.
Ultimately, the goal is to build an email program that serves and retains an authentically engaged audience, ensuring your crucial political messages consistently reach those who truly want to receive them. This proactive approach will mitigate future open rate declines and sustain the strong engagement you've worked hard to cultivate.
Microsoft and 
Gmail. What might appear as strong engagement on the surface could be masking underlying deliverability issues that impact how many of your emails actually reach the inbox, let alone get opened. 
Facebook ads and petition sign-ups, while effective for lead generation, can sometimes yield addresses that are decades old or from individuals who provided an email primarily to sign a petition, but don't wish for ongoing communication. While you're obtaining explicit consent, the recipient's expectation of future email volume or content might differ from your sending strategy. This mismatch can lead to recipients marking your emails as spam, even if they initially engaged. 
