Why are email open rates dropping in Gmail, especially for new subscribers and welcome emails?
Michael Ko
Co-founder & CEO, Suped
Published 15 May 2025
Updated 16 Aug 2025
7 min read
Many email marketers have seen a noticeable dip in their Gmail open rates, a trend that can be particularly concerning for new subscribers and welcome emails. This isn't just a minor fluctuation, it often represents a significant shift in how Gmail processes incoming mail, especially for senders with new recipients. The impact can extend beyond mere metrics, affecting overall campaign effectiveness and revenue from automated flows.
The challenge is that Gmail's algorithms are constantly evolving, becoming more sophisticated at identifying unwanted mail. While these changes aim to protect users from spam, they can inadvertently impact legitimate senders. When welcome emails, which typically have high engagement, start seeing lower open rates, it signals a deeper deliverability issue specific to Gmail's filtering.
This situation requires a proactive approach to understand the underlying causes and implement effective solutions. It is crucial to look beyond surface-level metrics and delve into the technical aspects of email sending, along with content and list management practices, to restore your inbox placement and engagement rates on Gmail.
Gmail's evolving filtering system
Gmail's filtering system is highly sophisticated, relying heavily on user engagement signals and sender reputation to determine inbox placement. Unlike some other mailbox providers, Gmail uses hundreds of signals to classify emails, which means a drop in open rates can be due to a complex interplay of factors rather than a single issue. A strong sender reputation is paramount here, as Gmail is less likely to filter emails from senders it trusts.
Factor
Impact on Gmail Deliverability
Sender reputation
Your domain and IP reputation directly influence inbox placement. Low engagement, high complaints, or spam trap hits can severely damage this. Google Postmaster Tools can provide insights.
Authentication (SPF, DKIM, DMARC)
Properly configured SPF, DKIM, and DMARC records are fundamental. Gmail (and Yahoo) now mandate strong authentication for bulk senders.
User engagement
Positive interactions like opens, clicks, and replies tell Gmail that your emails are valued. Negative actions such as marking as spam or deleting without opening hurt your standing.
Content relevance and quality
Emails that consistently provide value and are relevant to the recipient are more likely to be engaged with and, therefore, land in the inbox.
A crucial aspect of Gmail's filtering is its learning mechanism. If a new subscriber consistently marks your emails as spam or simply ignores them, Gmail quickly learns to route future emails from your domain to the spam folder for similar recipients. This feedback loop is critical, particularly for new subscribers who don't have a history of engagement with your brand.
This leads to a paradox where even good emails to new subscribers can struggle if the initial signals are negative. It highlights why maintaining high engagement and a clean list from the very first interaction is vital for sustained deliverability.
The specific challenge of new subscribers and welcome emails
Welcome emails are your brand's first real impression in the inbox, and they typically boast the highest open and click rates of any email type. Their high performance is precisely why a drop in open rates for these emails, especially on Gmail, is so alarming. It indicates that these crucial first communications aren't even making it to the primary inbox, let alone being opened.
The issue is often exacerbated for new subscribers because Gmail treats first-time interactions with greater scrutiny. If your domain or IP has any perceived deliverability issues, these welcome emails are more likely to land in spam or the promotions tab than subsequent emails to engaged users. This can create a vicious cycle where poor initial placement leads to lower engagement, further damaging your reputation for future sends to that same subscriber.
Bad welcome email practices
Purchased lists: Sending to unverified or purchased email addresses often includes spam traps or disengaged users, hurting reputation.
Immediate value: Offer a clear benefit or next step right away, like a discount or helpful resource.
Clear sender identity: Use a recognizable From name and email address that aligns with your brand.
When welcome email open rates drop, it impacts the entire customer journey. These initial emails are vital for nurturing new leads and setting the tone for future communications. A decline here can lead to reduced customer lifetime value and missed opportunities for engagement. It's a key indicator of underlying issues that need immediate attention.
Root causes of declining open rates
Several factors can contribute to a sudden or gradual decline in Gmail open rates, particularly for new subscribers. One primary culprit is a decline in sender reputation. If your domain or IP address is flagged due to high bounce rates, spam complaints, or low engagement, Gmail will progressively filter your emails to the spam folder or blocklist (blacklist) them altogether, especially for recipients who haven't previously interacted with you.
Another significant factor is poor list hygiene. Sending emails to inactive or invalid addresses, including spam traps, can severely damage your sender reputation. Even if new subscribers are legitimate, a high percentage of bad addresses on your overall list can negatively impact your deliverability to everyone, including new sign-ups.
Beware of spam traps and list decay
Even with an actively growing list, list decay is inevitable. Old subscribers may become inactive or their email addresses might turn into spam traps. If you continue to email these addresses, it signals to ISPs that your sending practices are poor, leading to lower inbox placement and declining open rates. Regularly cleaning your list is essential, even for new subscribers if they fail to engage initially.
Finally, content relevance and consistency play a role. If your welcome emails don't meet the expectations set during signup, or if subsequent emails lack value, new subscribers are more likely to ignore them or mark them as spam. This user behavior directly informs Gmail's filtering decisions. Technical issues like incorrect bounce domain alignment can also lead to problems, as can issues with new email templates.
Strategies for improving your open rates
Addressing dropping Gmail open rates, especially for new subscribers, requires a multifaceted strategy focused on improving overall deliverability and sender reputation. The first step is to prioritize email deliverability and list hygiene. Implement a double opt-in process for all new sign-ups to ensure genuine interest and reduce the risk of collecting bad email addresses or spam traps. Regularly clean your existing lists by removing inactive subscribers and hard bounces.
Key strategies to boost Gmail open rates
Optimize welcome series: Ensure your welcome emails are highly engaging, provide immediate value, and set clear expectations for future communications. Consider segmenting new subscribers based on their signup source or initial preferences.
Monitor sender reputation: Keep a close eye on your domain and IP reputation using tools like Google Postmaster Tools. Address any issues promptly, such as high spam complaint rates or blocklist (blacklist) listings.
Refine content and subject lines: Craft compelling subject lines and preview text that encourage opens. Ensure email content is relevant, personalized, and provides value to encourage sustained engagement.
Beyond these, segmenting your audience can also make a significant difference. Send your most engaging content to a highly engaged segment, especially for new subscribers, to build positive signals with Gmail. Gradually expand your sending to broader segments as your reputation improves. This careful warming of new audiences can prevent sudden drops in open rates for future campaigns.
Regularly testing your email deliverability and monitoring metrics beyond just open rates can help you identify and troubleshoot issues before they escalate. Pay attention to bounce rates, spam complaint rates, and inbox placement across different providers, not just Gmail. This holistic approach will contribute to more stable and higher open rates across your entire subscriber base.
Views from the trenches
Best practices
Implement a double opt-in process for all new subscribers to verify their engagement.
Segment your new subscribers and start with highly engaging content to build trust and positive sending history.
Regularly clean your email list by removing inactive subscribers and unengaged contacts.
Common pitfalls
Failing to implement double opt-in, leading to low-quality subscribers and spam complaints.
Sending the same volume of emails to new subscribers as to highly engaged ones.
Neglecting list hygiene, which can lead to hitting spam traps and reduced sender reputation.
Expert tips
Monitor Google Postmaster Tools closely for any changes in your domain or IP reputation.
Test your welcome emails regularly to ensure they are landing in the primary inbox.
Focus on content relevance and personalization, especially for your initial interactions.
Marketer view
Marketer from Email Geeks says they noticed a significant drop, almost half, in open rates for welcome emails specifically for Gmail addresses between January and February, while other domains remained consistent.
February 2, 2022 - Email Geeks
Marketer view
Marketer from Email Geeks says they saw a drastic drop in open rates on their welcome series and a significant decrease in attributed revenue from welcome flows, with overall email revenue down by 3-5% since January.
March 22, 2022 - Email Geeks
Navigating Gmail's evolving landscape
The challenges with declining Gmail open rates, especially for new subscribers and welcome emails, underscore the dynamic nature of email deliverability. Gmail's strict filtering and emphasis on user engagement mean that senders must be more vigilant than ever about their list hygiene, content quality, and technical authentication. By understanding these mechanisms and implementing best practices, you can improve your inbox placement and ensure your critical first impressions land where they matter most.
