Why am I seeing open rate drops specifically in California?

Key findings

• Geolocation inaccuracies: Mailbox providers (MBPs) often pre-fetch images to protect user privacy or optimize load times. These pre-fetches, which count as opens, may be routed through servers located in specific regions, regardless of the actual recipient's location. If many of your subscribers use Gmail (owned by Google, headquartered in California), declines in open rates attributed to California might reflect changes in Google's image pre-fetching behavior.
• Google's influence: Given that Google's primary data centers and headquarters are in California, changes in their delivery practices or image proxy servers can disproportionately affect reported open rates in that state, even if users are located elsewhere. This is similar to how Apple Mail Privacy Protection (MPP) impacts open rates, as noted by Mailchimp's email marketing benchmarks.
• Pre-fetching changes: A drop in reported open rates specifically tied to Google pre-fetching (which often maps to California) might indicate changes in how Google processes emails or fetches images. These opens are not indicative of actual engagement, as the user has not necessarily viewed the email.
• Specific days: Observing drops on specific days like Thursday and Friday suggests a potential pattern related to server load, processing changes, or even changes in ISP behavior on those particular days.

Key considerations

• Focus on engagement metrics: While open rates are a common metric, shifts due to pre-fetching make them less reliable. Prioritize metrics like click-through rates (CTR) and conversions, which more accurately reflect subscriber engagement.
• Geographic data accuracy: Be cautious when interpreting geolocation data, especially from email service providers that may rely on IP databases that incorrectly attribute traffic from major MBPs like Google to their headquarters' location. For more general advice on geo-specific open rate drops, consider resources on troubleshooting regional open rate changes.
• Domain-specific analysis: Analyze your open rates by recipient domain (e.g., Gmail, Yahoo, Outlook) to pinpoint which providers are contributing most to the reported drop in California. This can help identify if it is indeed a Google-specific phenomenon.
• Monitor deliverability: Even if pre-fetching is the cause, any significant change in reported opens warrants a check of your general deliverability to ensure your emails are still reaching the inbox, not being routed to spam or promotions. Tools like EmailTooltester's guide to open rate issues provide a good starting point.

Key opinions

• Pre-fetching impact: Many marketers acknowledge that a significant portion of reported opens, especially from major providers like Gmail, are due to automated image pre-fetching rather than actual user engagement. This behavior skews open rate data.
• Geolocation quirks: There's a common understanding that geolocation data for opens can be misleading, particularly when it comes to areas like California, which hosts major tech company headquarters. This is because email service providers often route image fetches through their own servers, which may reside in California, regardless of the recipient's true location. This issue is similar to why Yahoo and AOL open rates may appear lower.
• Gmail's role: If a regional open rate drop aligns with a significant drop in Gmail open rates, marketers suspect it relates to Google's internal processes or a change in how they handle email delivery and image loading.
• Engagement focus: Many marketers are shifting away from relying solely on open rates as a key performance indicator. They increasingly emphasize click-through rates and conversion metrics, as these provide a more accurate picture of actual subscriber interest and campaign effectiveness. Learn more about reasons for low open rates.

Key considerations

• Investigate delivery to primary tab: Even if emails typically land in the primary tab, a sudden drop in open rates may indicate a shift to promotions or spam folders for a segment of your audience, which could be regionally concentrated.
• Analyze by domain: To accurately diagnose the issue, segment your open rate data by recipient domain. If the California drop correlates strongly with a Gmail open rate decline, it reinforces the pre-fetching theory. This is a common step in troubleshooting Gmail open rate issues.
• Verify geolocation methods: Understand how your marketing platform (e.g., Mailchimp) performs geolocation. If it primarily relies on IP addresses that might be associated with Google's main locations, the data may be skewed.
• Shift reporting focus: Given the ongoing changes in how opens are tracked, marketers should educate stakeholders to prioritize metrics that reflect direct user action, such as clicks, conversions, and unsubscribe rates, over raw open counts.

Key opinions

• Pre-fetching distortion: Experts emphasize that Google (and other MBPs) pre-fetch images for various reasons, including optimizing email display and enhancing security. These automated fetches are counted as opens, artificially inflating or skewing reported open rates, making them an unreliable indicator of actual user engagement.
• Geolocation challenges: Geolocation based on IP addresses for open tracking is inherently flawed, especially with large tech companies. Mailbox providers route image requests through their own proxy servers, which are often located near their headquarters or major data centers, regardless of where the end-user is. This can lead to misattribution of opens to specific regions.
• Non-engagement opens: From a deliverability standpoint, opens generated by pre-fetching are not genuine engagement. Experts advise against counting them as meaningful interactions, as they do not reflect a user's intent to view the email. Therefore, a drop in such opens is not necessarily a negative sign for deliverability.
• Focus on deliverability to inbox: The primary concern should be whether emails are reaching the primary inbox. If emails are consistently landing in the primary tab, issues with pre-fetching or geolocation don't necessarily indicate a problem with spam filtering.

Key considerations

• Analyze Google Postmaster Tools: For Gmail-related issues, experts recommend using Google Postmaster Tools. This provides authoritative data on your sender reputation, spam rates, and delivery errors directly from Google, which is more reliable than open rates for diagnosing deliverability.
• Distinguish between deliverability and reporting: It's crucial to differentiate between actual delivery problems (emails not reaching the inbox) and reporting anomalies (skewed open rates due to pre-fetching or inaccurate geolocation). A drop in pre-fetched opens is a reporting anomaly, not a deliverability failure. Find more on email deliverability issues.
• Verify recipient domains: Confirm which recipient domains are most affected by the observed open rate drop. If it's predominantly Gmail, the pre-fetching and geolocation explanation becomes more plausible. Monitoring your domain reputation is key.
• Look at alternative metrics: Relying on click-through rates, unsubscribe rates, and complaints per domain provides a more accurate picture of actual engagement and list health than open rates alone, especially after privacy changes like Apple MPP.

Key findings

• Privacy features: Documentation confirms that privacy features like Apple's MPP and Google's image proxying automatically load remote content and hide IP addresses. This activity triggers an 'open' pixel without the user actually viewing the email, impacting open rate accuracy.
• Geolocation inaccuracies: Mailbox providers often route email content through their own servers, which are typically located in specific regions (e.g., California for Google, Ireland for Apple). As a result, geolocation data based on open pixels will reflect these proxy server locations, not the end-user's true geographic position. This can explain why your deliverability rate might be wrong.
• Reliability of open rates: Official statements from ESPs and industry reports increasingly caution against relying solely on open rates as a primary engagement metric due to these changes. Other metrics like clicks and conversions are becoming more important.
• Impact on campaign reporting: The changes in open rate tracking mean that campaign reports may show inflated or skewed open figures, or seemingly sudden drops in regions where MBPs have proxy servers. Marketers need to adjust their reporting expectations accordingly.

Key considerations

• Adjust metric focus: Documentation suggests prioritizing metrics that reflect active user engagement, such as click-through rates, website visits, and purchases, which are less affected by privacy features. Learn how to increase email click-through rate.
• Understand technical changes: Marketers should stay informed about technical updates from major MBPs (e.g., Google, Apple, Yahoo) regarding how they handle email loading and privacy. These changes directly influence open rate reporting.
• Re-evaluate geolocation: Given the unreliability of open-based geolocation, consider alternative methods for understanding your audience's geographic distribution, such as signup data or transactional information. This is especially true for diagnosing sudden drops in specific campaign types.
• Leverage MBP tools: Utilize tools like Google Postmaster Tools or Yahoo's sender dashboards, which provide more direct insights into deliverability and sender reputation, bypassing the skewed open rate data.